TECHNOLOGICAL ACCELERATIONISM
The hypothesis of the Technological Accelerationist states that technology experiences exponential growth rather than linear growth. Technological progress builds upon itself, leading to increasingly faster advancements indefinitely. Theoretically, this acceleration will eventually lead to a Technological Singularity, a point in time that may occur around the middle of this century. At this singularity, technology will advance at astonishing rates, potentially encompassing the equivalent of a thousand years of change within a single year of reality.
In the past, Technological Ages were infrequent and distant from one another. Consider the time gap between the Stone Age and the Bronze Age. However, nowadays, new Technological Ages and paradigms emerge rapidly, serving as foundations for a wide range of technologies. Each Technological Age drives creative destruction and wealth creation by enhancing productivity and reducing prices. The modern Technological Ages commenced in the 1700s. The Engineering Age, also known as the Industrial Age, introduced industrial machines. The Age of Physics enabled us to harness electricity and develop devices like radios, televisions, and microwaves. The Age of Synthetics allowed us to create materials such as plastics, kevlar, and fiberglass, significantly boosting our ability to produce affordable goods. The Information Age is currently transforming analog goods into digital formats, making them nearly free and extremely fast. In the near future, we will enter the Age of Artificial Intelligence, which will lead to a significant decrease in labor costs. Subsequently, the Biological Age will enable us to reduce the costs associated with healthcare, medicine, food, and water. Ultimately, we will reach the Age of Nano Technology, further lowering the price of goods and enabling the creation of almost anything and everything at minimal cost.
Hence, it is evident that technology’s impact on production, pricing, and transformation is accelerating across the past, present, and future. The objective of the economy is to drive the cost of every good and service towards zero or close to being free. Technology strives to provide increasing abundance, but to achieve this, it must bring about rapid change and consequent displacement.
We currently reside in an era characterized by Technological Acceleration. Technological progress is occurring at an unprecedented pace. As we progress further along the exponential curve, the rate of change, or gradient, is intensifying. The consequences of technological acceleration will be increasingly pronounced and will continue to amplify with the passage of time.
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT
INCREMENTALISM VERSUS DISRUPTIVE
Technological advancement can occur through two distinct processes: incremental changes and disruptive innovations. Technological Incrementalism involves gradual modifications within a specific field or industry, often leaving existing incumbents relatively unaffected. On the other hand, Technological Disruption introduces a new paradigm that can swiftly replace or eliminate entire sectors or fields. For instance, the invention of automobiles was a disruptive technology that displaced traditional modes of transportation like horse-drawn carriages. Subsequent incremental improvements in automobiles over the past few decades have not caused as much displacement as the initial disruptive innovation.
As exponential technologies in fields such as Biology, Computation, Batteries, Solar Power, and Artificial Intelligence continue to advance, they will bring about paradigm shifts that can either evolve or automate significant sectors of an economy, thereby displacing a considerable number of workers.
TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT VERSUS TECHNOLOGICAL DISPLACEMENT
Technological Unemployment posits the idea of permanent job loss, suggesting that advancing computation, including robotics, software, and AI, will replace all human labor. According to this thesis, individuals would lose their jobs and remain permanently unemployed, relying on the welfare state (UBI), facing destitution, or potentially facing elimination by the elites.
On the other hand, Technological Displacement proposes temporary job loss as a result of exponential technological change, where individuals are obsoleted in various fields at an increasing rate. The thesis suggests that individuals will eventually find gainful employment, likely in better fields and superior sectors, as has been observed throughout human history. However, the transitional period can lead to significant societal disruption due to the simultaneous shift of a large number of individuals from old fields to new fields.
TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION
THE LOW HANGING FRUIT: THE DECADE AHEAD
Technological Acceleration will indeed result in Technological Displacement, causing rapid transformations and obsolescence of entire sectors as the economy becomes increasingly digitized, automated, or evolved.
The pace of Technological Displacement is now faster than ever, with larger-scale effects. Numerous sectors of the economy, often referred to as the “low-hanging fruit,” will experience exponential changes in the next decade, leading to radical transformations and job losses.
Technological displacement has always been a part of human history through the mechanism of creative destruction, but its impact will accelerate exponentially in the foreseeable future. This trend will persist until other powerful forces emerge to slow down technological progress or until the potential extinction of our species, supplanting the forces of the Free Market.
Accelerating Technology and Technological Displacement forces us to probe the following:
Consider a world wherein 1 million individuals change careers in any given year due to being obsoleted by technology. Then consider a world where the yearly numbers continue to grow due to technological acceleration. Eventually, career changes will reach 2 million per year, then 5 million per year, then perhaps 10 million, so on and so forth. So fast may technological change become one day that a time may come when every job is eliminated in a particular year, a time wherein all of humanity has to retrain simultaneously.
Considering the impact of accelerating technology and technological displacement, it is worth exploring the following scenarios:
If every job in the world were replaced over a span of 10 years:
If every job in the world were replaced over a span of 5 years:
If every job in the world were replaced over the span of 1 or 3 years:
In all these scenarios, the transformation would be met with comprehensive societal responses, including investment in education, retraining programs, job creation initiatives, and social welfare systems to support individuals during the transitional phase. Governments, industries, and other stakeholders would try to navigate the complex challenges and ensure the well-being of affected individuals and the overall stability of society.
But ultimately, could any top down, centralized initiative help bear the burden of massive change, especially when those institutions themselves are under assault from said change?
TECHNOLOGICAL DISPLACEMENT: SOCIETAL DILEMMAS
Fire and Hire Lag Time is a fundamental concept in Technological Displacement, highlighting the delay between job loss and reemployment. While jobs can be lost rapidly, finding suitable new employment often takes longer. This results in extended periods of staggering unemployment or underemployment, even as the economy advances due to technology. The lag time between job loss and reemployment can have adverse effects on the overall health of the economy and society.
As Technological Displacement accelerates, the unemployment rate is expected to rise significantly. However, the exact proportion of the population that will be unemployed at the peak of this displacement remains uncertain. Predicting the precise numbers of simultaneously unemployed individuals is a challenging task that has not been decisively addressed at the time of writing.
Societies can manage a certain level of creative destruction, wherein individuals temporarily lose jobs to technology. However, if a substantial number of people simultaneously lose their jobs and are compelled to transition to new fields, it can lead to chaos. The threshold at which creative destruction becomes destructive is a critical consideration.
Multiple Job Replacements:
In theory, the rapid pace of technological change can result in new fields and sectors being created to fill the void left by recently disrupted sectors. However, this also means that individuals who transition to these new fields may face the risk of technology replacing those fields as well.
Consider an individual who loses their job to technology in a particular sector. They invest significant time, ranging from months to years, to retrain and enter a new field, only to find that technology has already advanced and replaced that field as well. For example, a coal worker transitioning to the solar industry might discover that solar power has been superseded by an even more advanced form of energy, such as fusion. Similarly, a travel agent who lost their job to online booking platforms may become a driver, only to face replacement by autonomous vehicles.
This constant cycle of disruption and adaptation means that individuals are constantly in the process of retraining to keep up with the evolving demands of our society. Just as they start to adjust to their new roles and the new industry they rely on, technological advancements may render that industry obsolete, requiring them to adapt once again.
The Most Disrupted & Displaced: (WHO WILL BE DISRUPTED)
Technological displacement has the potential to disrupt any job, and it may disproportionately affect highly skilled workers. Surprisingly, the most knowledgeable individuals could face significant challenges due to advancing technology. While discussions often focus on the impact on the poor, it is crucial to recognize that high earners with specialized skills and domain expertise should also be cautious about technological advancement.
Consider the following scenarios: A person invests countless hours to become an expert welder, only to be replaced by a robot. They now need to spend a similar amount of time learning a new craft that can provide an equivalent income. Another example is a professor who dedicates years to mastering a specific subject. As education becomes automated, their role may no longer be required.
Interestingly, unskilled laborers often have the ability to quickly retrain and find employment in other fields that rely on manual labor. They do not face the same level of concern regarding technological displacement. An agricultural day laborer who loses their job to an automated system can swiftly transition into other fields that primarily require physical labor. Moreover, compared to highly skilled individuals who have dedicated extensive time and effort to develop their expertise, unskilled laborers typically have invested minimal resources in acquiring their particular skill set.
In essence, technological displacement is more likely to impact highly skilled individuals who have specialized in a specific field rather than those engaged in general labor. As a result of rapid technological change, there is a possibility that, in the future, individuals may be less inclined to take the risk of acquiring domain expertise. It could become safer and more appealing for a significant portion of the population to pursue “general labor” where skills can be acquired relatively quickly and easily.
TECHNOLOGICAL ACCELERATION AND ECONOMIC DEFLATION
A WORLD OF EVER FALLING PRICES: CHAOS COMETH BEFORE ABUNDANCE
We are on the brink of an era of unparalleled wealth creation, surpassing anything in human history. In the next few decades, the world will experience an extraordinary improvement in living standards and an astonishing amount of wealth generation. This presents an opportune time for individuals to start businesses and benefit from exponential technological advancements, leading to prosperity. The pace of new millionaires, billionaires, and even trillionaires emerging will break records as the economy undergoes a complete reconstruction.
As technology advances, the cost of goods and services will steadily decrease, making them more accessible to all. This progress has the potential to uplift the entire human population, fostering widespread prosperity. However, we should expect challenges along the way. Creative destruction, the natural process of economic renewal, will disrupt existing systems and industries, causing periods of turmoil. Calls for intervention or attempts to hinder technological advancement may arise, but they are unlikely to alter the overall trajectory of economic transformation. In fact, such actions may only delay the inevitable restructuring of every system.
Technological displacement is approaching rapidly, and its impact may affect all of humanity in the near future. However, those who persevere into the 2030s will witness a remarkable surge in their standard of living as new technologies generate unprecedented wealth.
CREATIVE DESTRUCTION
The coexistence of anticipation and concerns in technological progress embodies the complexity of creative destruction. We marvel at the possibilities it brings, envisioning a future of abundance, improved efficiency, and innovation. However, we must also consider the adverse effects on individuals and communities, fearing job displacement, economic impact, and widening inequality. Technology empowers us but disrupts norms, requiring adaptation. To navigate this duality, we must approach technology with awe and caution. Investing in education, upskilling, and safety nets is crucial. Collaboration among governments, industries, and communities ensures the benefits are shared by all.
THE ERA OF ABUNDANCE
In this era of rapid technological change, human ingenuity thrives, creating abundance amidst constant technological displacement. Embracing innovation and adapting to change unlocks new realms of potential.
Disruptions brought by technology should be seen as opportunities for growth and progress. We can redirect our energy to fields that require human skills, fostering a society where individuals contribute to the greater good.
Technological advancements increase efficiency and productivity, creating resources and opportunities. Inclusive economic models, equitable access to education, and supportive social structures ensure widespread benefits.
In this world of abundance, we redefine work, wealth, and well-being. We reimagine societal structures, cultivate shared purpose, and ensure accessibility to progress. Together, we shape a world of endless possibilities.
TECHNOLOGICAL DISPLACEMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYMENT.
In the realm of technological progress, two intertwined concepts loom large: technological displacement and technological unemployment. While their effects may seem similar on the surface, a subtle distinction sets them apart.
Technological displacement represents the inevitable disruption that occurs when innovation renders certain jobs or industries obsolete. It is the natural consequence of our relentless pursuit of advancement, where the old gives way to the new. It is a testament to human ingenuity and our capacity to adapt and evolve. Technological displacement challenges us to reimagine and reinvent ourselves, pushing us to seek new avenues of growth and opportunity.
On the other hand, technological unemployment embodies a more worrisome notion. It evokes the specter of permanent job loss and the potential for individuals to be cast aside in the wake of automation and artificial intelligence. It raises concerns about the socio-economic impact of a rapidly changing landscape, where traditional employment structures may no longer be able to accommodate all members of society.
The crucial distinction lies in how we respond to these challenges. Technological displacement compels us to be proactive, to embrace change, and to cultivate a mindset of lifelong learning. It urges us to adapt our skills, to explore new horizons, and to discover uncharted territories of innovation. It carries the promise of progress, offering the potential for a brighter and more prosperous future.
Conversely, it is important to acknowledge that concerns about technological unemployment may not be grounded in reality. The notion that we will run out of jobs or that technological advancements will render human labor obsolete is unfounded. Throughout history, as technology has evolved, new jobs and industries have emerged, creating opportunities for individuals to contribute and thrive. The belief in the infinite capacity of human creativity and adaptability assures us that there will always be jobs that leverage our unique abilities and qualities.
In navigating the intricate interplay between technological displacement and the so-called technological unemployment, we must approach it with rationality and optimism. Instead of fearing the loss of jobs, let us embrace the potential of technology to augment human capabilities and create new avenues for employment. By fostering an environment that promotes innovation, entrepreneurship, and continuous learning, we can unlock the vast potential within each individual and build a future where meaningful and fulfilling work is abundant.